By Martinez J
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Additional info for 10 Essentials of Forex Trading
Yes, the 28-year-old whiz kids can get by with less sleep, while saddled with less knowledge about dated technologies, and have been schooled in the latest technologies. But “older”managers whom I interviewed enjoyed the advantage of having used their years to try out more things, and having seen more ups and downs. They are in the position of the peasant who remembers that dry summer 17 years ago, and who isn’t deceived by the recent runs of wet summers into assuming that summer will always be wet.
Further, from 1900-2000, equities and bonds in the United States have generated almost identical nominal returns on a risk-adjusted basis, with bonds slightly outperforming. S. S. edu/~adamodar/. Second, 2008 was a reminder that valuation matters. Part of the success of Yale and Harvard could be attributed to their recognition two decades ago that illiquid assets were cheap. As early entrants, they were able to benefit from the increased valuations of illiquids as followers drove up prices. Another part of their success could be a function of the extremely favorable macro environment, which saw declining interest rates and declining inflation for the past three decades.
In short, the peasants do not aim at maximizing long-term time-averaged yield, even though that is an appropriate goal for investors not spending their earnings and just investing to pay for luxuries on a rainy day in the distant future. Instead, the peasants only maximize long-term yield insofar as that is consistent with their overriding goal of eliminating their risk of starving in any given year, and throwing in a small safety margin for that calculation. It seems to me that the Harvard and Yale endowment managers are in a position analogous to that of the peasants, and would have done better to set a goal of maximizing yield only above a certain minimal level.
10 Essentials of Forex Trading by Martinez J